Tossing a Coin 

Not by Fire but by Ice

THE NEXT ICE AGE - NOW!

Discover What Killed the Dinosaurs . . . and Why it Could Soon Kill Us

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8 July 07

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Climate prediction: 
One can do just as well by tossing a coin
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30 Jun 07 - Kevin Trenberth is head of the large US National Centre for Atmospheric Research and one of the advisory high priests of the IPCC.

Trenberth has had a distinguished career as a climate scientist with interests in the use of computer General Circulation Models (GCMs), the basis for most of the public alarm about dangerous global warming.

In a remarkable contribution to Nature magazine's Climate Feedback blog, Trenberth concedes GCMs cannot predict future climate and claims the IPCC is not in the business of climate prediction. This might be news to some people.

Among other things, Trenberth asserts ". . . there are no (climate) predictions by IPCC at all. And there never have been". Instead, there are only "what if" projections of future climate that correspond to certain emissions scenarios.

According to Trenberth, "None of the models used by IPCC is initialised to the observed state and none of the climate states in the models corresponds even remotely to the current observed climate.

"The state of the oceans, sea ice and soil moisture has no relationship to the observed state at any recent time in any of the IPCC models.

"There is neither an El Nino sequence nor any Pacific Decadal Oscillation that replicates the recent past; yet these are critical modes of variability that affect Pacific rim countries and beyond . . . the starting climate state in several of the models may depart significantly from the real climate owing to model errors" and "regional climate change is impossible to deal with properly unless the models are initialised".

GCMs "assume linearity" which "works for global forced variations, but it cannot work for many aspects of climate, especially those related to the water cycle . . . the science is not done because we do not have reliable or regional predictions of climate".

Strange that. I could have sworn that I heard somewhere that the science was supposed to be settled.

In a third devastating blow to the credibility of climate forecasting, a lead author of the IPCC Working Group 1 science report, Jim Renwick, recently admitted "climate prediction is hard, half of the variability in the climate system is not predictable, so we don't expect to do terrifically well".

In other words, one can do just as well by tossing a coin.

These various criticisms of climate modelling can be summed up in the following statement –– there is no predictive value in the current generation of computer GCMs and therefore the alarmist IPCC statements about human-caused global warming are unjustified. Yet Australia has an Opposition and a Government that profess to set their climate policies on the basis of IPCC advice. Both also seem determined to impose an inefficient, ineffective and costly carbon trading or taxation system on the economy, for the aspirational absurdity of "stopping climate change".

Perhaps someone should tell Prime Minister John Howard that dangerous global warming has been called off.

See entire article (originally entitled Forecasts all up in the air) by Bob Carter:

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,,21977114-27197,00.html
Thanks to Matt Nicholson for this link

Professor Bob Carter is a James Cook University geologist who studies ancient environments and climate. His website is at: http://members.iinet.net.au/~glrmc/new_page_1.htm

 





               

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