Professor Bob Carter 

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24 September 07

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The Myth of Dangerous 
Human-Caused Climate Change
Professor Bob Carter
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Excerpts from a paper  presented by Professor Bob Carter in May at a conference in Brisbane, Australia. The paper is entitled "The Myth of Dangerous Human-Caused Climate Change.

 I am one

"Climate alarmism is propagated by a diverse group of journalists, environmental lobbyists, scientific and business groups, church leaders and politicians, all of who preach that we must "stop climate change" by severely reducing human carbon dioxide emissions, two propositions that compete in impracticality.

"There are many qualified persons who argue against such an alarmist interpretation of recent and likely future climate change. I am one. When referred to politely, such persons are badges as "climate sceptics"; nearly as often they are disparaged as "climate septics," "climate deniers" or flat earthers."

"The denigration implicit in the word sceptic is interesting in itself, because virtually all scientists - whether they support the alarmist views of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) or are of more independent mind - accurately view themselves as professional sceptics, for that is what scientists are trained to be."

"...Science is not, nor ever has been, 
about consensus, but about experimental 
and observational data and testable hypotheses
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"Is there an established Theory of Climate? Answer: no. 

""Do we understand fully how climate works? No. 

Professor Bob Carter is a research professor at James Cook University  (Queensland) and the University of Adelaide (South Australia). He is a palaeontologist, stratigrapher, marine geologist and environmental scientist with more than 30 years of professional experience and holds degrees from the University of Otago (New Zealand) and the University of Cambridge (England). He has held tenure academic staff positions at the University of Otago (Dunedin) and James Cook University (Townsville), where he was professor and head of School of Earth Sciences from 1981 to 1999.

Carter has published more than 100 papers in international science journals on taxonomic palaeontology, palaeoecology, New Zealand and Pacific geology, stratigraphic classification, sequence stratigraphy, sedimentology, the Great Barrier Reef, Quaternary geology and sea-level and climate change. He receives no research funding from special-interest organizations.

These excerpts came from Carter's paper presented on May 3, 2007 at the Australian IMM New Leader's Conference

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"Is carbon dioxide demonstrated to be a dangerous atmospheric pollutant? No. 

"Can deterministic computer models predict future climate? Another no. 

"Is there a consensus amongst qualified scientists that dangerous, human-caused climate change is upon us? Absolutely not. 

"Did late 20th century temperature rise at a dangerous rate, or to a dangerous level? No, in either case. 

"Is global temperature currently rising? Surprisingly, no."

Theory that 20th century warming 
was substantially caused by humans fails

The currently favored hypothesis of dangerous global warming includes the presumption that late 20th century warming was substantially caused by human emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. As will be elaborated later, this theory has failed the three main tests to which it has been subjected. 

          -  First, no close relationship exists between the 20th century patterns 
             of increasing carbon dioxide and changing temperature;

          - second, 20th century rates and magnitude of temperature change fall 
             well within previous natural limits of change despite accompanying 
             increases in human-sourced carbon dioxide;

          - and third, the deterministic computer models that are used to engender 
             public alarm have proved unable to predict the course of temperature
             change over the period 1990-2006, let alone out to 2100.

Very few experts on ancient climate change

At least $50 billion has been expended on climate change research since 1990. It is noteworthy that this large expenditure, and the extended efforts of the many talented scientists supported by it, have in 2007 still not provided convincing evidence for a measurable human effect on global climate.

The climate advice that governments receive, mostly through the IPCC, is heavily influenced by scientists whose prime interests are climate processes and imaginary virtual reality, and very light on information from experts in ancient climate change. And therein lies one of the fatal weaknesses of the IPCC.

Extensive glaciation occurred when atmospheric 
carbon dioxide was up to 17 times higher than today

Boucot et al .(2004) have show that over the Phanerozoic little relationship exists between the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and necessary warming, including that extensive glaciation occurred between 444 and 353 million years ago when atmospheric carbon dioxide was up to 17 times higher than today (Chumakov, 2004).

Forthcoming 21st century cooling

Projection of the cyclic historic pattern of sunspot activity suggests that a forthcoming 21st century cooling will be driven by falling solar activity, perhaps even to the level of the cold Maunder minimum in the 17th century. 

No increase in surface global temperature since 1998

Accepting the 1860-2006 temperature record used by the IPCC (2007; Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia) as a best measure, we find that there has been no significant increase in surface global temperature since the peak El Nino year of 1998. 

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See complete article by Professor Bob Carter in pdf form


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