Not by Fire but by Ice


.                                                                                                                                    Updated 7 Sep 06

I first published this forecast by Dr. Landscheidt in 2003.  However, with the
recent reported cooling of the Atlantic Ocean, and with the first reversed
sunspot of what may be the beginning of the next solar cycle, and with Russian
scientists predicting a new Little Ice Age, I thought it would be an appropriate
to give more credit to Dr. Landscheidt. He had been predicting this
scenario for years. 

Here's what Dr. Landscheidt had to say:

New Little Ice Age by 2030!

Analysis of the sun's activity in the last two millennia indicates that, contrary to the
IPCC's speculation about man-made global warming, that we could be headed into
a Maunder minimum type of climate (a Little Ice Age).

The probability is high that the minima around 2030 and 2201 will go along with
periods of cold climate comparable to the nadir of the Little Ice Age, and La Niņas
will be more frequent and stronger than El Niņos through 2018 (Landscheidt, 2000).

We need not wait until 2030 to see whether the forecast is correct, however. A
declining trend in solar activity and global temperature should become manifest long
before then. The current 11-year sunspot cycle 23  with its considerably weaker
activity seems to be a first indication of the new trend, especially as it was predicted
on the basis of solar motion cycles two decades ago. As to temperature, only El Niņo
periods should interrupt the downward trend, but even El Niņos should become less
frequent and strong.

The total magnetic flux leaving the Sun has risen by a factor of 2.3 since 1901 while
global temperature on earth increased by about 0.6°C. Energetic flares increased the
Sun's ultraviolet radiation by at least 16 percent. There is “a clear connection between
solar eruptions and a strong rise in temperature.”

Lake bottom cores from the Yukatan Peninsula covering more than 2,000 years
show a similar correlation between recurrent droughts and the Sun's eruptional
activity. These results and many earlier ones (Landscheidt, 1981-2001) document 
the importance of the Sun's eruptional activity on climate.

Energetic solar eruptions do not accumulate around the sunspot maximum. In most
cycles they shun the maximum phase and can even occur close to a sunspot minimum.

I (Landscheidt) have shown for decades that the sun's varying activity is linked to cycles 
in its irregular oscillation about the centre of mass of the solar system (the solar retrograde 
cycle). As these cycles are connected with climate phenomena and can be computed for 
centuries, they offer a means to forecast phases of cool and warm climate.

Researchers need to take the sun seriously as a factor in climate change, including
warming, droughts, and cold snaps.

 * * * 

I’m sorry to report that Dr. Theodor Landscheidt passed away on May 20, 2004. Founder 
of the Schroeter Institute for Research in Cycles of Solar Activity in Waldmuenchen, Germany, 
Dr. Landscheidt was a giant in the field of climatology. 

Here's  what I published in 2003


Dr. Landscheidt, author of "Sun - Earth - Man: A Mesh of Cosmic Oscillations", and 
"Cosmic Cybernetics: The Foundations of a Modern Astrology," based his forecast on 
the Gleissberg cycle of solar activity. 

"Contrary to the IPCC's speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C 
within the next hundred years," said Landscheidt, "a long period of cool climate with its 
coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected.""

It can be seen," added Landscheidt, "that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and a
nother one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe
 cooling on Earth." (Posted 19 Sep 2003)

This confirms what I've been saying all along; that our climate is controlled by magnetic activity on 
the sun. 

It also makes my assertion that "we'll be admitting that we're headed into an ice age by the year 2012" 
seem a lot more plausible.

                                                          * * *

Landscheidt's forecasts include the end of the great Sahelian drought; the last five extremes 
in global temperature anomalies; the last three El Niņos; and the course of the last La Niņa. 
He predicted extreme River Po discharges beginning in October 2000, some seven months 
before they began.

This forecast skill, says Landscheidt, solely based on solar cycles, is irreconcilable
with the IPCC's allegation that it is unlikely that natural forcing can explain the
warming in the latter half of the 20th century.

Here are more references and links:

Landscheidt, T. (1976): Beziehungen zwischen der Sonnenaktivität und dem Massenzentrum 
des Sonnensystems. Nachrichten der Olbersgesellschaft 100, 2-19.

Landscheidt, T. (1983): Solar oscillations, sunspot cycles, and climatic change. In: McCormac, 
B. M., ed.: Weather and climate responses to solar variations. Boulder, Associated University
 Press, 293-308.

Landscheidt, T. (1986 a): Long-range forecast of energetic x-ray bursts based on cycles of 
flares. In: Simon, P. A., Heckman, G. und Shea, M. A., eds.: Solar-terrestrial predictions.
Proceedings of a workshop at Meudon, 18.-22. June 1984. Boulder, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, 81-89.

Landscheidt, T. (1986 b): Long-range forecast of sunspot cycles. In: Simon, P. A., 
Heckman, G. und Shea, M. A., eds.: Solar-terrestrial predictions. Proceedings of a 
workshop at Meudon, 18.-22. June 1984. Boulder, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, 48-57.

Landscheidt, T. (1987): Long-range forecasts of solar cycles and climate change. In: 
Rampino, M. R., Sanders, J. E., Newman, W. S. und Königsson, L. K., eds.: Climate. 
History, Periodicity, and Predictability. New York, van Nostrand Reinhold, 421-445.

Landscheidt, T. (1988): Solar rotation, impulses of the torque in the Sun's motion, and 
climatic variation. Climatic Change 12, 265-295.

Landscheidt, T.(1990): Relationship between rainfall in the northern hemisphere and 
impulses of the torque in the Sun's motion. In: K. H. Schatten and A. Arking, eds.: 
Climate impact of solar variability. Greenbelt, NASA, 259-266.

Landscheidt, T.(1995): Global warming or Little Ice Age? In: Finkl, C. W., ed.: 
Holocene cycles. A Jubilee volume in celebration of the 80th birthday of Rhodes 
W. Fairbridge. Fort Lauderdale, The Coastal Education and Research Foundation 
(CERF), 371-382.

Landscheidt, T. (1998 a): Forecast of global temperature, El Niņo, and cloud coverage 
by astronomical means. In: Bate, R., ed.: Global Warming. The continuing debate. 
Cambridge, The European Science and Environment Forum (ESEF), 172-183.

Landscheidt, T. (1998 b): Solar activity : A dominant factor in climate dynamics.

Landscheidt, T. (1999 a): Solar activity controls El Niņo and La Niņa.

Landscheidt, T. (1999 b): Extrema in sunspot cycle linked to Sun's motion. Solar 
Physics 189:413-424.

Landscheidt, T. (2000 a): Solar forcing of El Niņo and La Niņa. European Space 
Agency (ESA) Special Publication 463, 135-140.

Landscheidt, T. (2000 b): River Po discharges and cycles of solar activity. Hydrol. 
Sci. J. 45:491-493.

Landscheidt, T. (2000 c): Sun's role in the satellite-balloon-surface issue.

Landscheidt, T. (2000 d): New confirmation of strong solar forcing of climate.

Landscheidt, T. (2000e): Solar wind near Earth: Indicator of variations in global 
temperature. ESA-SP 463,497-500.

Landscheidt, T. (2001 a): Solar eruptions linked to North Atlantic Oscillation.

Landscheidt, T. (2001 b): Trends in Pacific Decadal Oscillation subjected to solar 

Landscheidt, T. (2002): El Niņo Forecast Revisited.

For other scientists who disagree with the idea 
of human-caused global warming

See Climatologists Who Disagree



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