Low solar output – "We're in deep ice water"

Not by Fire but by Ice

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Low solar output – "We're in deep ice water"

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22 Jan 09 – Email from reader

Hi Mr. Felix,

            I read your post (about the low sunspot count) and thought I’d pass along a few thoughts.

            Sunspots are merely a proxy for solar output albeit somewhat more accurate than using tree rings for temperature proxies. But one should not lose sight that solar output is the real issue.  Today we can measure the solar output (the 10.7cm solar radio flux) directly using satellites. The lowest value for flux is likely around 53-64 and still be the Sun. If Bob looks at the solar flux for the last two years he'll see we've been in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  A solar maximum can be over 300.

            No matter what the sunspot count was during the Maunder Minimum it is highly unlikely the solar flux was lower than what we've experienced at the start of cycle 24 so far.  We still have some months to go to before one can say anything with certainty about cycle 24’s minimum relative to prior ones.  However, if the solar flux stays about where it is and if there is causation of solar output to cooling, we're in deep ice water so to speak.

Thanks for having a great site!
Rick Heaton

 

 


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