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End Government-Funded Research on Global

Warming, says expert

IPCC violated 81% of 89 relevant forecasting principles  


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1 Apr 11 - In testimony yesterday before the Subcommittee on Energy and Environment Committee on Science, Space and Technology, forecasting expert Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania called on Congress to cease funding global warming research, programs, and advocacy organizations.

Referring to an analysis he conducted with Kesten C. Green of the University of South Australia and Willie Soon of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Armstrong told the subcommittee, that forecasting procedures used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “violated 81% of the 89 relevant forecasting principles.”  

"The warming alarmists have not demonstrated the predictive validity of their procedures," says their report. "Instead, their argument for predictive validity is based on their claim that nearly all scientists agree with the forecasts. Such an appeal to "voting" is contrary to the scientific method. It is also incorrect."

"In this ongoing study, we have, to date, identified 26 historical alarmist movements. None of the forecasts for the analogous alarms proved correct. In the 25 alarms that called for government intervention, the government impost regulations in 23. None of the 23 interventions was effective and harm was caused by 20 of them."

Armstrong and his colleagues recommend that Congress:

  • End government funding for climate change research

  • End government funding for research predicated on global warming (e.g., alternative energy; CO2 reduction; habitat loss)

  • End government programs and repeal regulations predicated on global warming

  • End government support for organizations that lobby or campaign predicated on global warming

“Based on our analyses, especially with respect to the violations of the principles regarding objectivity and full disclosure,” Armstrong told members of Congress, “we conclude that the manmade global warming alarm is an anti-scientific political movement.”
Thanks to Pat Beall for these links

The above report was published in: "Testimony to Subcommittee on Energy and Environment Committee on Science, Space and Technology" on 03/31/2011


Global warming alarm will prove false

In an earlier report - Armstrong, Green and Soon - predicted that the global warming alarm will prove false. They wrote,

"The alarming forecasts of dangerous manmade global warming are not the product of proper scientific evidence-based forecasting methods. Furthermore, there have been no validation studies to support a belief that the forecasting procedures used were nevertheless appropriate for the situation.

As a consequence, alarming forecasts of global warming are merely the opinions of some scientists and, for a situation as complicated and poorly understood as global climate, such opinions are unlikely to be as accurate as forecasts that global temperatures will remain much the same as they have been over recent years.

Using proper forecasting procedures we predict that the global warming alarm will prove false and that government actions in response to the alarm will be shown to have been harmful."

See report:





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