Not by Fire but by Ice
THE NEXT ICE AGE - NOW!
Discover What Killed the Dinosaurs . . . and Why it Could Soon Kill Us
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of the coming winter
From the headlines, you'd think that the two books are at total odds with each other, but when you read further, you see that they're in general agreement.
Both forecasts are at odds with the National Weather Service's long-range outlook.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center anticipates a warmer-than-normal winter for the mid-Atlantic and Southeast and colder-than-normal weather in the Northwest.
Ed O'Lenic from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said the scientific community doesn't accept tides, planetary alignment and sunspots as effective predictors of temperature or precipitation, but he stopped short of being critical of the almanac's meteorological methods.
In my opinion, NOAA and the almanacs are all underestimating the severity of the coming winter.
I think the building La Niña - not to be confused with El Niño - is going to bring us "a polar bear" of a winter (as meteorologist Joe Bastardi puts it).
Here are portions of the two almanac's forecasts:
9 Sep 10 – Most of the country will see a colder-than-usual winter while summer and spring will be relatively cool and dry, says the Old Farmer's Almanac.
In the coming months, the Earth will continue to see a "gradual cooling of the atmosphere ... offset by any warming caused by increased greenhouse gases."
The Old Farmer's Almanac is also forecasting a weak La Nina — an unusual cooling of the sea surface in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Much of the eastern half of the United States will experience lower-than-normal temperatures with less snow while Mid-Atlantic states will see more snowfall than usual, said editor Janice Stillman. The West will see a mild winter with average precipitation, she said.
Meanwhile, the South will experience a cold and wet summer and the Rockies should see a mild and dry winter.
"It'll be cold. There will be no mistaking winter," Stillman said. "But it may be a little shorter or we may see some small warm spells in places like the East Coast."
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Old Farmers' Almanac
29 Aug 10 - After record snowfall in the mid-Atlantic and unusually cold weather down South, the Farmers' Almanac predicts that it'll be cold but nothing like last winter, when 49 states saw snow and it got so cold in Florida that iguanas fell out of trees.
"Overall, it looks like it's going to be a kinder and gentler winter, especially in the areas that had a rough winter last year," said managing editor Sandi Duncan.
It'll still be colder than normal for much of the country, the almanac says, and New England will get a "cold slap in the face" after missing last winter's misery. Finally, residents of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes are expected to get the piles of snow that'll be lacking elsewhere.
See story about Farmers' Almanac
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