Declining Trend Line from Joe Tritz

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Declining Trend Line from Joe Tritz
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12 Mar 08 - I’m an actuary, not a climatologist. But I’ve been updating analysis each month as the NASA global temperature anomalies are released, and I’ve run the trend line on 120-month anomaly period. The 120-month trend line peaked over 6 years ago.
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Since that time, there has been a steady decline in the trend line at a rate of -.002774 anomaly change per month. In other words, 73 months ago, according to the 120-month trend line, the projected rate of warming had a slope of 0.397 (indicating an alarming 4.76 degrees Celsius warming over the next century, had it continued). Right now, the latest 120-month trend line is 0.147. This implies a rate of warming of 1.76 degrees over the next Century. This means that the rate of warming has slowed by a full 3 degrees Celsius over the last 6+ years. The actual trend line for just the last few years is either flat or cooling.

This shows a very rapid decrease in the rate of warming. In fact, each of the last two months had an anomaly lower than the projected trend line. This may be a La Nina effect, but it has actually steepened the trend line even more.

According to my projections, if this rate of warming decline continues, 2008 will have an anomaly that is the 12th warmest on record. I am sure that this is exactly how it would be sold by the media. But, in fact, it would not be an argument for global warming at all. If you hit the peak, and you’re coming back down, the first few points on the way back down will still be near the peak. It would actually be significant that 2008 would only be the 12th warmest on record given a few of the recent higher anomalies.

Here’s the chart that shows this phenomenon. It’s a pretty clean fit (r-squared value of 81%, if you’re up on your statistics). The y-axis is the slope of the 120-month trend and the x-axis is the month # starting 73 months ago (month = starting point of the 120-month trend line).

My full analysis is here:
http://digitaldiatribes.wordpress.com/2008/03/10/march-2008-update-on-global-temperature-trends/

The current cycle is that we are experiencing a slowing down of the warming trend.

Joe Tritz

 







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