Not by Fire but by Ice
THE NEXT ICE AGE - NOW!
Discover What Killed the Dinosaurs . . . and Why it Could Soon Kill Us
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The trend is decidedly downward. Indeed, the drop in temperatures since late-2007 has een so precipitous --nearly a full degree Celsius-- that almost all of the global warming that has occurred since the late-1970s has disappeared.
One of the criticisms of global warming predictions is that models cannot even reproduce climate for which we already have detailed records. So last spring, when climate scientists at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Science and the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology managed -- finally -- to use their supercomputer to recreate the climate of the past half-century, there was much anticipation of what their predictions would be for the next half. What they said was that global temperatures would continue to fall for at least another decade, perhaps longer.
When I wrote last year that this 20-year intermission in upward temperature trends bruised the credibility of global warming scientists and alarmist environmentalists, several of them wrote me to say they had never predicted steadily rising temperatures. No, no, they insisted, all along they had expected periods -- even some long ones -- in which temperatures would retreat before surging ahead again. So the currently cooling fit right in with what they had been predicting all along.
This, of course, was revisionist hogwash -- if only because the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claimed there was no doubt that disastrous manmade warming was already upon us. The IPCC further predicted temperatures this decade would rise 0.3C and by similar amounts every decade through 2100.
I had been fully prepared for the alarmists to take credit for the cooling once it became undeniable. What I had not predicted was the hubris and intellectual dishonesty that permitted the warmers to insist they knew all along of facts contrary to their theories, but believed those facts reinforced, rather than undermined, the validity of their earlier claims.
Now, a similarly Orwellian doublethink is happening over Arctic sea ice. Since last fall, Arctic ice has been expanding faster than at any time since satellite records became available in 1979. The ice cap is now only a fraction smaller than in 1980 -- when it was at its largest.
Not only has this news not received much reporting, but the fact that ice sensors in the North have been malfunctioning, which has very likely led to a further underestimating of the amount of ice around the pole, has set off another we-never-claimed-it-was-an-emergency moment among greenies.
Taking exception to a column written by The Washington Post's George Will, New York Times reporter Andrew Revkin -- one of the warmers' most reliable trumpets -- wrote recently, "I've not met a single scientist focussed on sea ice who would point to a single year's changes as evidence" of global warming.
Since hurricanes stopped menacing the U. S. coastline, the supposedly rapidly melting polar ice has been the biggest alarmist story.
Consider these two examples from the scores of articles and scientists claiming the proof of dangerous warming is visible in each melting ice flow:
-Mark Serreze, one of the most prominent Arctic ice scientists in the world and a researcher at the U. S. National Snow and Ice Center, said last summer's melt proved "Arctic ice is in its death spiral," and would be completely gone each summer by 2030.
-Last fall, a group of international scientists, led by Environment Canada climatologist Nathan Gillett, insisted in the journal Nature Geoscience that, among other factors, Arctic melting was proof manmade warming was harming the planet.
Winston Smith, of course, was the character in
Orwell's Nineteen Eighty- Four whose job it was to rewrite history,
literally, and send the old, embarrassing versions that had been
overtaken by facts down the memory hole for destruction. As the
consensus on warming crumbles, expect more such Winston Smith denials
from the theory's true believers.
Lorne Gunter can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
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