"We could have an ice age any time,"
says Swedish climate expert
CO2 not the main cause of global warming
22 Apr 10 - Carbon dioxide is not the main cause of global warming, says
Swedish climate expert Dr. Fred Goldberg. Climate change is not affected
by humans, but mainly by solar activities and ocean currents such as PDO
(Pacific Decadal oscillations) He even predicts that the earth is going
to experience colder winters in the following years or even decades.
Goldberg holds that climate change is natural and caused by the sun
activity. In an exclusive interview with People's Daily Online, Goldberg
explained his ideas.
We could have an ice age any time
(Excerpts) - "We could have an ice age any time," Dr. Goldberg says,
"Over the past one million years, we have experienced eight ice ages.
Eighty percent of the last million years was ice age. We are lucky to
live in this short inter-glacial period."
"If we go down to the last 4000 to 3500 years in the Bronze Age period,
it was three degrees warmer than today on the northern hemisphere at
least," Goldberg explained.
"Two thousand years ago, during the Roman period or during China's East
Han Dynasty, the temperature was two degrees higher than now," he said.
During the Viking era a thousand years ago it was one degree Celsius
During the Viking era or the medieval Warm Period it was warm enough to
grow grapes and cereal in England, he said.
"We had a new peak in high temperature in 2002 after a solar activity
maximum, now the temperature is going down again. So we are heading into
a cooling period."
"If you look at the last 150 years, we had a warming period from 1910 to
1940 and then a cooling period from 1941 to 1977. Then it was a warming
period from 1977 to 2002," Goldberg said. This shows a 60 year cycle
correlating to the ocean current PDO in the Pacific Ocean.
During the depression period 1929-1933, the production of CO2 went down
by 30 percent. But due to the increase of the global temperature, the
CO2 increased in the atmosphere because of the heating of the oceans
thereby emitting CO2.
In 1991, there was an eruption of the Pinatubo volcano, one saw the
reduction of CO2 because the volcano ash blocked the sun causing a
cooling of the oceans. Goldberg said this is an indication that it was
the solar activity that decides the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
How much CO2 is there in the air?
How much CO2 is there in the air? Only 0.0387 %, it has neither odor,
nor color and is not poisonous. If there isn't CO2, there will not be
plant life, therefore, we must have CO2, we need it, Goldberg argued.
Over the past 100 years, with an increase of 100 ppm CO2, the earth
temperature only increased 0.7 degree. Thus it is not possible for the
temperature to increase 2 degrees globally which our politicians want to
prevent, Goldberg said.
Why? Goldberg explained that the ocean will absorb large amount of CO2.
Once it is absorbed by the ocean, it will to some extent become calcium
carbonate which is the same thing as limestone. Then the limestone will
be building up at the bottom of the oceans. The whole island of Gotland
which is the largest island in Sweden is formed of limestone.
"Many climate scientists are bluffing in order to please the politicians
who want to put a tax on CO2. These scientists live in symbiosis with
the politicians. They both depend on each other," Goldberg criticized
Solar activity decides whether the temperature is up or down
Goldberg said that solar activity has increased 3 times according to
records from NASA earth observatory. This is something we can't do
"The activity of the sun shows the highest activity ever recorded in
Sun activity heats the sea surface, and the sea releases CO2. Over the
past 100 years, 100 ppm CO2 were emitted due to the warming of the sea
Along the equator, the sun is heating the water. When the water is
warmer, the water is releasing carbon dioxide (CO2). The colder the
water is, the more CO2 it absorbs. And therefore the colder waters
around the Arctic and Antarctica will absorb a lot of CO2. There is a
huge cycle of CO2. If you take out the CO2 for plants, then the ocean
will evaporate more to air. If you emit more, the ocean will take it up.
Ocean controls the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. The sun controls the
ocean temperatures which in turn has a strong effect on the climate on
"The people of Bangladesh breaths out 75 million tons CO2 per year,
Sweden generates 60 million tons per year from all its industrial
activities, transports and warming of houses etc. while the people in
China breathes out 700-800 million tons per year. What does it mean? It
means to reduce the amount of the CO2 will have no effect on our climate
at all. You cannot do anything, I mean you cannot stop the sun from
coming up tomorrow morning. If we cannot stop the sun from going up in
the morning, can we change the CO2 system in the atmosphere? It is self
regulated and sun-controlled," Goldberg said.
Why does the arctic ice melt?
Goldberg explained that the reason we have the Gulf Stream is that the
rotation of the earth creates a force to push the water north. To stop
the Gulf stream, one has to stop the rotation of the earth.
It is the same theory with the ancient trade current or trade wind, when
you travel from Europe to China, you have to wait for the winds to go in
that direction and when you arrived in China, you have to wait another
six months until the wind change direction so that you could sail back
Goldberg said in 1977, there was a great climate shift in the Pacific
Ocean, the temperature in Alaska increased by 3 degree C in one year. In
2008, it decreased 3 degrees back to normal which means the warm water
is not going to the Arctic Ocean any more.
"So when you hear the ice in Arctic Ocean is disappearing, it was
because of this warm current flowing to the Arctic. Now it has stopped.
So the ice is building up again. Very few seems to have understood this.
They think it is the global warming that has melted the ice, but in
fact, it is the warm current that melted the ice," Goldberg said.
Goldberg said whether the current is warm or cold depends on if the PDO
is positive or negative. If it is positive, there is warm current
entering the Arctic Ocean and if it is negative, the warm water stays in
the western Pacific Ocean.
Goldberg already predicted in the summer of 2009 that the 2010 winter
will be a very cold one because the solar activity was zero according to
data in NASA in the US and Kiruna in Northern Sweden.
Almost three years without sun spot
"If we look at the history, we see almost three years without sun spot.
Thus, I think it will be cold. Last time with a similar situation was
between 1810 and 1812. That also coincided with the time when Napoleon
invaded Moscow," said Goldberg.
"I think China should prepare for future cold weather because as a
consequence the food production will go down." Goldberg concluded.
Goldberg focuses on climate issues for over a dozen years with well
grounded science knowledge. He used to teach in Sweden's Royal
See entire article by Xuefei Chen, People's Daily Online correspondent
Thanks to Kirk Myers for this link