THE NEXT ICE AGE - NOW!

19 Jul 09 - "The official El Nino criteria has been met. Now the meteorological world looks to see how strong and how long this lasts. Count on CPC and other forecast centers to go for a warm winter as a result of El Nino but as we have shown, there are differences in El Ninos depending on the overall mode in the Pacific Basin (the PDO). The tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures this week are shown here.

"The Southern Oscillation Index has been positive (La Nina territory) much of the last month. Is it possible like last year, the warming fails to persist? I suspect it will continue to come on become a weak to moderate El Nino that peaks perhaps before winter.

"El Ninos in negative PDO eras tend to be shorter, weaker and colder compared to El Ninos in a positive PDO era (+1.08F)."

See entire article with lots of good charts and links
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog