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Coming winter coldest in 1,000 years,

say Polish forecasters
 

Russians disagree  
 

 

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4 Oct 10 - "After the record heat wave this summer, Russia's weather seems to have acquired a taste for the extreme," says this article on Russia Times (RT) News.

"Forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years."

“Although the forecast for the next month is only 70 percent accurate, I find the cold winter scenario quite likely,” Vadim Zavodchenkov, a leading specialist at the Fobos weather center, told RT

"The change is reportedly connected with the speed of the Gulf Stream, which has shrunk in half in just the last couple of years," says RT. "Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds. According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe."

Sounds ominous.

But there is a fight brewing over this forecast, says meteorologist Anthony Watts.

"Polish climatologist, Mikhail Kovalevski [sic] believes that if the trend continues, the climatic zones will move North and Europe will become a permafrost area for ever," Watts reports. "The Scandinavian countries are already feeling the breathing of the Arctic."

However, "NASA officials say that the global warming of the past 18 years has made the Gulfstream stronger and warmer."

And Russia? Russian meteorologists hold the middle ground, Alexander Frolov, head of the Russian Meteorological Agency says.

"The Gulfstream is powerful and is not declining; it warms up Europe, and consequently, it  has a high significance for both Poland and the Scandinavian nations. But access to the heat might be restricted by the thawing of the ice and the turning of the water fresh – that is cold fresh water may appear on the surface, preventing the heat from going into the atmosphere to have an impact on the climate. We do not overestimate such a phenomenon, Frolov says.

"The country will have a normal Russian winter, perhaps not as harsh as last year, Frolov says.

So there you have it. Which countries are telling the truth, which are playing politics with our lives, and which are genuinely confused?  

They can't even agree on what's going to happen this winter, yet we're supposed to let them blow smoke in our faces about what's going to happen a hundred years from now.

By the way, the fact that Russia endured record heat this past summer in no way precludes a record winter.

According to one of the world's greatest climatologists, the late H.H. Lamb, extremes in climate are one of the hallmarks of our entry into a little ice age.

See RT News article here:
http://rt.com/prime-time/2010-10-04/coldest-winter-emergency-measures.html

See Anthony Watts article here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/04/fight-brewing-between-polish-and-russian-forecasters-over-a-potentially-record-cold-winter-ahead/
Thanks to Eunice Farmilant, Alan Caruba, Steven Woodcock, Martin Hoer, P.F. Wagner, Hans Schreuder, Craig Adkins, George Fitzsimmons, Mark, Brian Payne and Kacper from Germany for these links


  





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