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23 Aug 09 - Today, August 23, marked the 44th straight
day without a sunspot, one of the longest stretches this solar
minimum,” says meteorologist Joseph D’Aleo.
“In fact it rises into 10th place among all spotless periods since
1849,” says D’Aleo. “The total number of spotless days this
transition from cycle 23 to 24 is now 694 rapidly approaching the
approximate number leading into cycle 15 in the early 1900s.…We have
had 183 spotless days this year (79% of the days).”
By this time into it, D’Aleo points out, most of
the last 5 solar cycles had recovered, in one case already to the solar
max (below, enlarged
here).
However, “this cycle has continued to decline in
the solar irradiance, solar flux, sunspot number and geomagnetic
activity.”
You really want to read the full
article. It describes findings by
“Clilverd
et al 2006 showing that “the next two cycles will likely
be very quiet much like
those of 200 years ago in the early 1800s,
the so-called Dalton
Minimum, the time of Dickens (with snows
and cold in London like
last winter).”
Then it links to a fantastic paper by
David Archibald, showing what
the result might be if
Clilverd is correct.
“Some have not ruled out an even
stronger Maunder-like Minimum,”
says D'Aleo.
See entire article:
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog
Thanks to Mike McEvoy and Tom McHart for this link |
